Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
