Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
